Launch Crisis Intensifies

The launch crisis is a severe shortage of rockets, with a predicted shortfall of about 150 launches compared to demand from satellite operators and civil space agencies by 2030. This crisis will not be resolved until late in the 2030s. The situation is more severe than anticipated, with significant implications for national security and the global space industry.

Understanding the Launch Crisis

The launch crisis is driven by a combination of factors, including increased demand from satellite operators and civil space agencies, as well as the US military. The Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy programs by SpaceX are nearing their end, and if not extended, the shortage could be doubled. Quilty Space estimates that the launch crisis will not abate until sometime late in the 2030s.

Impact on the Space Industry

The launch crisis will have significant implications for the global space industry, with commercial space companies and government space programs affected. The shortage of rockets will impact spacecraft development, with delays and cancellations of missions expected. Aerospace engineering companies will need to adapt to the new reality, with a focus on increasing launch capacity and reducing production costs.

Launch Demand and Capacity

The following table compares the launch demand and capacity for the next decade: